The results for Week 2 are in, and they’re promising—but not yet exceptional. The portfolio is performing in line with Bitcoin and Total2 (crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin), though a few human errors impacted the overall results. These hiccups, detailed below, are unlikely to repeat and leave room for improved performance in the coming weeks.

Key Update: The challenge timeline has been shortened from 14 months (ending January 1, 2026) to 12 months (ending November 1, 2025). The rationale? Bitcoin recently broke out of its prolonged sideways price action to new all-time highs. Historically, Bitcoin has peaked within 10-12 months after such breakouts during the last three cycles: 2013, 2017, and 2021. Aligning the challenge with this anticipated cycle peak ensures a timely and relevant comparison.

 

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Performance Overview

Portfolios:

Benchmarks:

• Bitcoin: 24.42%
• Total2: 21.72%

Key Takeaway:
While the portfolios collectively gained 21.5%, this fell slightly behind Bitcoin's performance of 24.42% during the same period. Human error impacted results, particularly for MarginBot 2.0 and Margin10. Corrective measures have been implemented, setting the stage for improved performance moving forward.

 

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Breakdown by Portfolio

1. Top15 Portfolio
   • TrendBot 2.0 Return: 16.29%
   • MarginBot 2.0 Return: 39.00%
   • The dual-momentum strategy in MarginBot excelled, generating peak returns of 60% at one point. This strategy allocates more capital to the top-performing coins while ignoring those in downtrends.

 

2. Breakout Portfolio
   • TrendBot & MarginBot Combined Return: 20.00%
   • While satisfactory, the breakout portfolio underperformed relative to expectations. During the first week, only a few coins met the breakout criteria, limiting exposure. 

• As more coins break out, this portfolio is expected to thrive during the altcoin season.

3. LowVol20 Portfolio
   • Return: -0.86%
   • The largest disappointment of this period, likely due to exposure to underperforming altcoins. However, this portfolio is designed to capture emerging altcoins ranked in the volume 40-60 range. As the altcoin season gains momentum, this portfolio is expected to recover and contribute significantly.

 

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Challenges and Corrections

1. MarginBot API Key Issue
   • Problem: MarginBot was unable to borrow funds for the first 10 days due to incorrect API key permissions.
   • Impact: Missed opportunities to leverage 100% equity during a period when Bitcoin rallied 10-20%.
   • Solution: API key permissions were corrected, enabling borrowing. Performance has since accelerated.
2. Margin10 Rebalancer Issue
   • Problem: A misconfiguration of the Rebalancer minimum trade amount caused delays in executing trades during Bitcoin’s surge.
   • Impact: Margin10 held USDT instead of desired positions during a key 12-18 hour period when Bitcoin gained 10%.
   • Solution: Adjusted the Rebalancer settings and replenished funds. Performance quickly rebounded.
3. Missed Dogecoin Gains
   • Limitation: Margin10 is not compatible with Dogecoin due to protocol constraints, missing out on its recent gains.

 

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Conclusion

Despite initial challenges, the first two weeks of the challenge delivered a strong start with a 21.5% return, bringing the portfolio to $121,507. The early mistakes, caused by human error and initial setup issues, have been addressed, setting the stage for stronger performance in the coming weeks.

Looking ahead, MarginBot 2.0 is poised for significant gains now that borrowing is enabled, while TrendBot 2.0 and Margin10 are well-positioned to capitalize on the expected altcoin season. The revised 12-month timeframe aligns perfectly with Bitcoin's cyclical trends, ensuring the challenge remains timely and relevant.

The journey to a 10x return has begun with momentum, and with the lessons learned, the portfolio is on track to outperform benchmarks and deliver exceptional results. Stay tuned for Week 4 updates!